WEATHER FORECASTS

National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology

 

 

Forecast for cities

 

City11.12.202312.12.202313.12.202314.12.2023
  tmin / tmax
[°C]
Weather tmin / tmax
[°C]
Weather tmin / tmax
[°C]
Weather tmin / tmax
[°C]
Weather
Sofia -1 / 6 Mostly sunny 0 / 9 Variable clouds, possible rain 1 / 12 Variable clouds 5 / 11 Mostly cloudy with rain
Sofia district 0 / 9 Variable clouds 0 / 11 Variable clouds 1 / 12 Mostly cloudy 5 / 12 Mostly cloudy with rain
Vidin -2 / 9 Variable clouds -1 / 13 Variable clouds 4 / 8 Overcast 5 / 10 Mostly cloudy with rain
Vratsa 0 / 10 Mostly sunny 0 / 11 Variable clouds, possible rain 3 / 14 Mostly cloudy 5 / 9 Mostly cloudy with rain
Montana 0 / 10 Mostly sunny -1 / 13 Variable clouds 3 / 10 Mostly cloudy 3 / 8 Mostly cloudy with rain
Pleven -1 / 8 Variable clouds 0 / 12 Variable clouds 3 / 15 Variable clouds 4 / 11 Mostly cloudy with rain
Veliko Tarnovo -1 / 7 Mostly sunny -1 / 12 Variable clouds 1 / 14 Variable clouds 6 / 13 Mostly cloudy
Russe 0 / 7 Variable clouds 1 / 11 Variable clouds 2 / 13 Mostly cloudy 5 / 11 Mostly cloudy with rain
Shumen -1 / 6 Variable clouds -1 / 8 Variable clouds -1 / 10 Mostly cloudy 3 / 12 Mostly cloudy
Silistra 0 / 6 Variable clouds 1 / 9 Variable clouds 1 / 12 Mostly cloudy 7 / 11 Mostly cloudy
Varna 1 / 8 Variable clouds 2 / 10 Variable clouds 2 / 11 Variable clouds 9 / 14 Mostly cloudy
Bourgas 3 / 9 Variable clouds 2 / 11 Variable clouds 1 / 12 Mostly cloudy 8 / 15 Mostly cloudy
Sliven 0 / 8 Variable clouds 1 / 10 Variable clouds 5 / 9 Mostly cloudy 8 / 13 Mostly cloudy
Stara Zagora -2 / 8 Variable clouds -1 / 11 Variable clouds 0 / 9 Mostly cloudy 3 / 12 Mostly cloudy
Plovdiv -1 / 10 Variable clouds 0 / 12 Variable clouds 2 / 7 Fog 3 / 9 Overcast
Kardzhali 1 / 10 Variable clouds 1 / 12 Variable clouds 0 / 13 Mostly cloudy 9 / 15 Mostly cloudy
Blagoevgrad 1 / 7 Mostly sunny -1 / 12 Variable clouds -1 / 13 Mostly cloudy 5 / 15 Mostly cloudy with rain
Sandanski 1 / 9 Mostly sunny 2 / 13 Variable clouds 6 / 12 Mostly cloudy 9 / 15 Mostly cloudy

Mountains

 

Forecast for Mountain Resorts

 

Point11.12.202312.12.2023
  tmin / tmax
[°C]
Снежна
покривка
[cm]
Weather tmin / tmax
[°C]
Weather
Botev peak -7 / -316 Mostly sunny -6 / -3 Variable clouds, possible snow
Murgash peak -5 / 17 Mostly sunny -4 / 2 Variable clouds
Cherni vrah -7 / -239 Mostly sunny -6 / -3 Variable clouds, possible snow
Aleko -5 / 0n.a. Mostly sunny -5 / 1 Variable clouds, possible snow
Musala peak -10 / -4n.a. Mostly sunny -8 / -5 Variable clouds, possible snow
Borovets -4 / 43 Mostly sunny -5 / 4 Variable clouds, possible snow
Rozhen -4 / 317 Mostly sunny -4 / 4 Variable clouds
Snezhanka -6 / 1n.a. Mostly sunny -3 / 3 Variable clouds
Pamporovo -4 / 3n.a. Mostly sunny -3 / 5 Variable clouds
Chepelare-Mechi Chal -4 / 2n.a. Mostly sunny -4 / 5 Variable clouds
Smolyan -2 / 6n.a. Mostly sunny -3 / 7 Variable clouds
Bansko -3 / 5n.a. Mostly sunny -3 / 8 Variable clouds
Dobrinishte -3 / 5n.a. Mostly sunny -3 / 8 Variable clouds
Todorka peak -9 / -3n.a. Mostly sunny -7 / -4 Variable clouds, possible snow
1200m -4 / 5n.a. Mostly sunny -4 / 5 Variable clouds
2000m -6 / -1n.a. Mostly sunny -5 / 0 Variable clouds, possible snow

Note: Snowdepth available only in cold year half.

Black Sea

 

Forecast for Sea Resorts

 

Point11.12.202312.12.2023
  tmin / tmax
[°C]
Water t
[°C]
Weather tmin / tmax
[°C]
Weather
Shabla 0 / 79 Mostly sunny 3 / 11 Variable clouds
Kaliakra 1 / 89 Mostly sunny 4 / 12 Variable clouds
Varna 1 / 89 Variable clouds 2 / 10 Variable clouds
Emine 5 / 89 Variable clouds 3 / 12 Variable clouds
Burgas 3 / 99 Variable clouds 2 / 11 Variable clouds
Ahtopol 6 / 910 Variable clouds 3 / 12 Variable clouds

Note: Sea water temperature available only in warm year half.

 

Legend—forecasts

 

Sunny/clear;

Variable clouds;

Variable clouds; rain possible;

Variable clouds; snow possible;

Mostly cloudy;

Mostly cloudy with rain;

Mostly cloudy with snow;

Mostly sunny;

Overcast

Rain;

Short rain showers;

Some showers and thunder;

Rain and snow;

Weak snow;

Heavy snow;

Fog;

Changeable: sunshine and showers, possible thunder;

Changeable clouds;

Weak rain;

Thunderstorms

Preparedness for Firefighting

on the bases of the operational regional weather forecasting model ALADIN-BG

Legend—Fire Risk
Степен на риск/ HazardОписание на българскиDescription in English
Малък
Low
Съществуващи пожари се самозагасяват и е малко вероятно да възникват нови. Жизнени пожари са възможни само като тлеене в дълбоки сухи слоеве.Fires likely to be self-extinguishing and new ignitions unlikely. Any existing fires limited to smoldering in deep, drier layers.
Умерен
Moderate
Възможни са леки и бавно развиващи се пожари. Съществуващи пожари се гасят лесно от наземни екипи с помпи и ръчни инструменти.Creeping or gentle surface fires. Fires easily contained by ground crews with pumps and hand tools.
Голям
High
Възможни са умерени до силни пожари с въвличане на дървесни корони само локално. Пожарите са трудни за овладяване от наземни екипи. Често се налага използване на тежка екипировка за овладяване на пожарите (булдозери, камиони-цистерни, самолети).Moderate to vigorous surface fire with intermittent crown involvement. Challenging for ground crews to handle; heavy equipment (bulldozers, tanker trucks, aircraft) often required to contain fire.
Много голям
Very High
Възможни са много силни пожари с частично или пълно въвличане на дървесните корони. Предните фронтове на пожарите е невъзможно да бъдат овладени от наземни екипи. Налагат се въздушни атаки със забавящ агент (retardant), за да се атакуват успешно предните фронтове на пожарите.High-intensity fire with partial to full crown involvement. Head fire conditions beyond the ability of ground crews; air attack with retardant required to effectively attack fire's head.
Екстремален
Extreme
Възможни са бързо разпространяващи се много силни пожари с въвличане на дървесните корони. Пожарите са трудни за овладяване. Действията по погасяване се ограничени само по фланговете на пожара. Възможни са само индиректни действия, насочени срещу предните фронтове на пожарите.Fast-spreading, high-intensity crown fire. Very difficult to control. Suppression actions limited to flanks, with only indirect actions possible against the fire's head.
Не се пресмята (сняг)
(Snow)
Не се извършват изчисления за този район. (Наличие на снежна покривка).No calculations were performed for this region.

Canadian Forest Service (http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/)

About the Canadian Index of Fire Risk (Fire Weather Index, FWI)

 

The system is operational since April,2008 during the warm months (April-October)The Canadian Fire Weather Index, FWI, developed in the Canadian Forest Service Research Center is used.

Data used (input elements for FWI calculation):

  • Precipitaion amount for the last 24 hours;
  • Air temperature;
  • Air relative humidity;
  • Wind speed; snow cover presence;
  • Day duration.

FWI has three sub-indices showing the "dryness" of different types of "fuel". Each of these sub-idices is a complex function of the meteo-elements. Knowing the sub-indices and wind velocity data, two other sub indices are calculated, which evaluate the initial fire kindling and the available "fuel" for the further unfolding of the fire. On their basis the FWI in calculated and it gives an overall assessment of the intensity of fire unfolding (in energy released per unit time per unit length along the fire front line).

Operational System for Thermal Comfort/Discomfort Forecast

The maps are generated on the basis of the forecast of ALADIN-BG weather model.

Thermal Comfort/Discomfort Classes

 

The proposed maps show the current or expected feeling of thermal comfort/discomfort of the majority of people. The maps refer to a standard time of day, which corresponds to the classical observation periods at weather stations. For example, 12 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) corresponds to 14:00 Bulgarian time (15:00 summer time), which is usually close to the warmest hours of the day, and 03 UTC corresponds to 05:00 Bulgarian time (06:00 summer weather) which is usually close to the coldest hours of the day.

Thermal Comfort Classes, Description of the Sensation of Comfort/Discomfort and Recommended Clothing

The table shows the degrees of thermal comfort/discomfort. The categories of comfortable, warm and hot are defined on the basis of the degrees of physiological stress to which the human thermoregulatory system is subjected in the different temperature conditions according to the feels like temperature. The categories for cold are according to the Wind Chill Index.

Thermal comfort class From feels like temperature, °С To feels like temperature, °С Grade in colour Thermal sensation of comfort or discomfort Description Level of clothing
13 44 - Extreme heat Substantial risk of thermal shock in prolonged work/stay outdoors. 0.4
12 38 44 Very hot The mechanism of self-cooling by sweating is hindered. 0.4
11 32 38 Hot Almost the whole body is covered in sweat. 0.4
10 26 32 Very warm A big part of the body is covered with sweat. 0.4
9 20 26 Warm Sweating has started. A small part of the body is covered with sweat. 0.5-0.4
8 10 20 Comfortable Sensation of thermal comfort with suitable clothing 1.0-0.5
7 0 10 Cool Thermal comfort can be achieved with suitable clothing, but there is slight discomfort in the cold side on exposed parts of the body. 1.5-1.0
6 -10 0 Cold Goosebumps start. 2.0-1.5
5 -18 -10 Very cold Shivering starts. 2.4-2.0
4 -27 -18 Possible frost bite Possible frost bite of bare skin 2.9-2.4
3 -35 -27 Frost bite of bare skin Frost bite of bare skin within 30 min of exposure 3.3-2.9
2 -47 -35 Rapid frost bite of bare skin Frost bite of bare skin within 10 min of exposure 3.9-3.3
1 - -47 Dangerously rapid frost bite Dangerously rapid frost bite with 5 min of exposure 4.0

Clothing Index—Meaning

Recommended clothing ensembleClothing index
Nude 0
Shorts0.1
Shorts, open-neck shirt with short sleeves, sandals0.35
Long light-weight trousers, open-neck shirt with short sleeves, open shoes0.5
Long trousers, open-neck cotton work shirt with long sleeves, shoes0.7
Long trousers, cotton work shirt with long sleeves, shoes, and a light jacket0.9
Typical business suit (long trousers, cotton work shirt with long sleeves, vest, shoes, and a jacket)1.0
Typical business suit and a cotton coat1.5
Long resistant trousers, woolen flannel shirt, woolen socks, shoes, wind and water resistant jacket and vest, a hat and gloves1.5-2.0
Polar weather suit with hood, warmth-keeping shoes, a hat covering the ears, strong isolating gloves3.0-4.0

Feels Like Temperature

Feels like temperature is the air temperature in a reference atmospheric environment where a person's sense of thermal comfort/discomfort would be the same as in real weather conditions. The feeling of thermal comfort is calculated using a numerical model of the thermal balance of a human body of a "standard" person placed in the conditions of the Earth's atmosphere near ground in outdoors, on grass or snow cover, when present. A "standard" person is a 35-year-old man, 1.75 m tall and weighing 75 kg. The “standard” person performs work at a power corresponding to walking at a speed of 4 km/h on a horizontal surface. The wind is supposed to always blow from the side of the direction of movement. The clothing is adapted (summer/winter) so that the "standard" person, if possible, achieves thermal comfort in the specific outdoor weather conditions. The following weather parameters are involved: air temperature; relative humidity; wind speed; presence of snow cover; cloudiness; geographical coordinates and altitude of the place; date and time. Values are adapted to reflect conditions near ground (0-2 m), where the "standard" person operates.