WEATHER FORECASTS

National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology

 
no
hazzard

 

Forecast for cities

 

City02.04.202503.04.202504.04.202505.04.2025
  tmin / tmax
[°C] 		Weather tmin / tmax
[°C] 		Weather tmin / tmax
[°C] 		Weather tmin / tmax
[°C] 		Weather
Sofia 7 / 10 Mostly cloudy with rain 5 / 14 Mostly cloudy 4 / 14 Mostly cloudy with rain 5 / 15 Variable clouds, possible rain
Sofia district 7 / 12 Mostly cloudy with rain 4 / 14 Mostly cloudy with rain 4 / 13 Short rain 2 / 16 Variable clouds, possible rain
Vidin 9 / 16 Variable clouds, possible rain 7 / 17 Variable clouds 6 / 17 Variable clouds 5 / 19 Variable clouds, possible rain
Vratsa 8 / 12 Rain 7 / 14 Variable clouds 5 / 14 Mostly cloudy with rain 6 / 15 Variable clouds, possible rain
Montana 9 / 14 Rain 5 / 17 Variable clouds 4 / 16 Mostly cloudy 5 / 19 Variable clouds
Pleven 9 / 13 Rain 8 / 16 Mostly cloudy 6 / 17 Variable clouds 6 / 18 Variable clouds
Veliko Tarnovo 8 / 12 Short rain 6 / 14 Mostly cloudy with rain 5 / 15 Mostly cloudy with rain 4 / 18 Variable clouds, possible rain
Russe 9 / 15 Variable clouds, possible rain 9 / 16 Mostly cloudy with rain 6 / 17 Mostly cloudy 7 / 18 Variable clouds, possible rain
Shumen 8 / 13 Rain 6 / 15 Weak rain 5 / 16 Variable clouds, possible rain 6 / 18 Mostly cloudy
Silistra 8 / 15 Variable clouds, possible rain 7 / 16 Mostly cloudy 6 / 17 Variable clouds, possible rain 7 / 18 Variable clouds, possible rain
Varna 8 / 12 Short rain 8 / 16 Mostly cloudy 7 / 14 Variable clouds, possible rain 6 / 16 Variable clouds, possible rain
Bourgas 9 / 13 Short rain 8 / 16 Mostly cloudy 6 / 17 Variable clouds, possible rain 7 / 17 Variable clouds, possible rain
Sliven 8 / 12 Rain 7 / 15 Mostly cloudy 6 / 15 Mostly cloudy 6 / 15 Short rain
Stara Zagora 8 / 13 Rain 6 / 15 Mostly cloudy with rain 7 / 18 Variable clouds 6 / 17 Variable clouds, possible rain
Plovdiv 9 / 13 Rain 7 / 18 Mostly cloudy 6 / 16 Weak rain 5 / 18 Variable clouds, possible rain
Kardzhali 8 / 12 Short rain 7 / 16 Mostly cloudy with rain 8 / 16 Variable clouds, possible rain 5 / 16 Variable clouds, possible rain
Blagoevgrad 6 / 13 Mostly cloudy with rain 5 / 16 Variable clouds, possible rain 4 / 14 Mostly cloudy with rain 5 / 15 Short rain
Sandanski 9 / 15 Mostly cloudy with rain 9 / 18 Variable clouds 7 / 16 Sun, cloud, shower, and thunder 8 / 16 Variable clouds, possible rain

Mountains

 

Forecast for Mountain Resorts

 

Point02.04.202503.04.2025
  tmin / tmax
[°C] 		Снежна
покривка
[cm]		 Weather tmin / tmax
[°C]		 Weather
Botev peak -5 / -215 Heavy snow -5 / -2 Mostly cloudy with snow
Murgash peak 0 / 2n.a. Rain & snow -1 / 2 Fog
Cherni vrah -4 / -138 Light snow -4 / -2 Light snow
Aleko* -1 / 110 Light snow -3 / -1 Light snow
Musala peak** -7 / -4n.a. Light snow -7 / -3 Mostly cloudy with snow
Borovets* 1 / 4n.a. Mostly cloudy with rain 0 / 4 Rain & snow
Rozhen -1 / 21 Rain & snow -1 / 4 Mostly cloudy with snow
Snezhanka* -1 / 0n.a. Light snow
Pamporovo* 0 / 2n.a. Rain & snow 0 / 5 Mostly cloudy
Chepelare-Mechi Chal* -1 / 2n.a. Rain & snow
Smolyan* 2 / 5n.a. Rain 1 / 11 Short rain
Bansko* 4 / 7n.a. Mostly cloudy with rain 1 / 9 Short rain
Dobrinishte* 4 / 8n.a. Mostly cloudy with rain 2 / 10 Mostly cloudy with rain
Todorka peak* -6 / -3170 Light snow -6 / -2 Mostly cloudy with snow
1200m 1 / 3n.a. Mostly cloudy with rain 2 / 6 Mostly cloudy with rain
2000m -1 / 0n.a. Light snow -3 / -1 Light snow

* Snow depth information is from the Bulgarian Mountain Rescue Service

** Snow depth not measured.

Note: Snow cover depth is given only during the cold half of the year.

Black Sea

 

Forecast for Sea Resorts

 

Point02.04.202503.04.2025
  tmin / tmax
[°C] 		Water t
[°C]		 Weather tmin / tmax
[°C] 		Weather
Shabla 8 / 109 Short rain 8 / 14 Mostly cloudy
Kaliakra 8 / 1010 Short rain 9 / 12 Mostly cloudy
Varna 8 / 129 Short rain 8 / 16 Mostly cloudy
Emine 8 / 119 Short rain 10 / 15 Mostly cloudy with rain
Burgas 9 / 1310 Short rain 8 / 16 Mostly cloudy
Ahtopol 9 / 119 Short rain 10 / 13 Mostly cloudy

Note: Sea water temperature available only in warm year half.

 

Legend—forecasts

 

Sunny/clear;

Variable clouds;

Variable clouds; rain possible;

Variable clouds; snow possible;

Mostly cloudy;

Mostly cloudy with rain;

Mostly cloudy with snow;

Mostly sunny;

Overcast

Rain;

Short rain showers;

Some showers and thunder;

Rain and snow;

Weak snow;

Heavy snow;

Fog;

Changeable: sunshine and showers, possible thunder;

Changeable clouds;

Weak rain;

Thunderstorms

Preparedness for Firefighting

on the bases of the operational regional weather forecasting model ALADIN-BG

Legend—Fire Risk
Степен на риск/ HazardОписание на българскиDescription in English
Малък
Low		Съществуващи пожари се самозагасяват и е малко вероятно да възникват нови. Жизнени пожари са възможни само като тлеене в дълбоки сухи слоеве.Fires likely to be self-extinguishing and new ignitions unlikely. Any existing fires limited to smoldering in deep, drier layers.
Умерен
Moderate		Възможни са леки и бавно развиващи се пожари. Съществуващи пожари се гасят лесно от наземни екипи с помпи и ръчни инструменти.Creeping or gentle surface fires. Fires easily contained by ground crews with pumps and hand tools.
Голям
High		Възможни са умерени до силни пожари с въвличане на дървесни корони само локално. Пожарите са трудни за овладяване от наземни екипи. Често се налага използване на тежка екипировка за овладяване на пожарите (булдозери, камиони-цистерни, самолети).Moderate to vigorous surface fire with intermittent crown involvement. Challenging for ground crews to handle; heavy equipment (bulldozers, tanker trucks, aircraft) often required to contain fire.
Много голям
Very High		Възможни са много силни пожари с частично или пълно въвличане на дървесните корони. Предните фронтове на пожарите е невъзможно да бъдат овладени от наземни екипи. Налагат се въздушни атаки със забавящ агент (retardant), за да се атакуват успешно предните фронтове на пожарите.High-intensity fire with partial to full crown involvement. Head fire conditions beyond the ability of ground crews; air attack with retardant required to effectively attack fire's head.
Екстремален
Extreme		Възможни са бързо разпространяващи се много силни пожари с въвличане на дървесните корони. Пожарите са трудни за овладяване. Действията по погасяване се ограничени само по фланговете на пожара. Възможни са само индиректни действия, насочени срещу предните фронтове на пожарите.Fast-spreading, high-intensity crown fire. Very difficult to control. Suppression actions limited to flanks, with only indirect actions possible against the fire's head.
Не се пресмята (сняг)
(Snow)		Не се извършват изчисления за този район. (Наличие на снежна покривка).No calculations were performed for this region.

Canadian Forest Service (http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/)

About the Canadian Index of Fire Risk (Fire Weather Index, FWI)

 

The system is operational since April,2008 during the warm months (April-October)The Canadian Fire Weather Index, FWI, developed in the Canadian Forest Service Research Center is used.

Data used (input elements for FWI calculation):

  • Precipitaion amount for the last 24 hours;
  • Air temperature;
  • Air relative humidity;
  • Wind speed; snow cover presence;
  • Day duration.

FWI has three sub-indices showing the "dryness" of different types of "fuel". Each of these sub-idices is a complex function of the meteo-elements. Knowing the sub-indices and wind velocity data, two other sub indices are calculated, which evaluate the initial fire kindling and the available "fuel" for the further unfolding of the fire. On their basis the FWI in calculated and it gives an overall assessment of the intensity of fire unfolding (in energy released per unit time per unit length along the fire front line).

Operational System for Thermal Comfort/Discomfort Forecast

The maps are generated on the basis of the forecast of ALADIN-BG weather model.

Thermal Comfort/Discomfort Classes

 

The proposed maps show the current or expected feeling of thermal comfort/discomfort of the majority of people. The maps refer to a standard time of day, which corresponds to the classical observation periods at weather stations. For example, 12 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) corresponds to 14:00 Bulgarian time (15:00 summer time), which is usually close to the warmest hours of the day, and 03 UTC corresponds to 05:00 Bulgarian time (06:00 summer weather) which is usually close to the coldest hours of the day.

Thermal Comfort Classes, Description of the Sensation of Comfort/Discomfort and Recommended Clothing

The table shows the degrees of thermal comfort/discomfort. The categories of comfortable, warm and hot are defined on the basis of the degrees of physiological stress to which the human thermoregulatory system is subjected in the different temperature conditions according to the feels like temperature. The categories for cold are according to the Wind Chill Index.

Thermal comfort class From feels like temperature, °С To feels like temperature, °С Grade in colour Thermal sensation of comfort or discomfort Description Level of clothing
13 44 - Extreme heat Substantial risk of thermal shock in prolonged work/stay outdoors. 0.4
12 38 44 Very hot The mechanism of self-cooling by sweating is hindered. 0.4
11 32 38 Hot Almost the whole body is covered in sweat. 0.4
10 26 32 Very warm A big part of the body is covered with sweat. 0.4
9 20 26 Warm Sweating has started. A small part of the body is covered with sweat. 0.5-0.4
8 10 20 Comfortable Sensation of thermal comfort with suitable clothing 1.0-0.5
7 0 10 Cool Thermal comfort can be achieved with suitable clothing, but there is slight discomfort in the cold side on exposed parts of the body. 1.5-1.0
6 -10 0 Cold Goosebumps start. 2.0-1.5
5 -18 -10 Very cold Shivering starts. 2.4-2.0
4 -27 -18 Possible frost bite Possible frost bite of bare skin 2.9-2.4
3 -35 -27 Frost bite of bare skin Frost bite of bare skin within 30 min of exposure 3.3-2.9
2 -47 -35 Rapid frost bite of bare skin Frost bite of bare skin within 10 min of exposure 3.9-3.3
1 - -47 Dangerously rapid frost bite Dangerously rapid frost bite with 5 min of exposure 4.0

Clothing Index—Meaning

Recommended clothing ensembleClothing index
Nude 0
Shorts0.1
Shorts, open-neck shirt with short sleeves, sandals0.35
Long light-weight trousers, open-neck shirt with short sleeves, open shoes0.5
Long trousers, open-neck cotton work shirt with long sleeves, shoes0.7
Long trousers, cotton work shirt with long sleeves, shoes, and a light jacket0.9
Typical business suit (long trousers, cotton work shirt with long sleeves, vest, shoes, and a jacket)1.0
Typical business suit and a cotton coat1.5
Long resistant trousers, woolen flannel shirt, woolen socks, shoes, wind and water resistant jacket and vest, a hat and gloves1.5-2.0
Polar weather suit with hood, warmth-keeping shoes, a hat covering the ears, strong isolating gloves3.0-4.0

Felt Temperature

Felt temperature is air temperature in a reference atmospheric environment where a person's sense of thermal comfort/discomfort would be the same as in real weather conditions. The feeling of thermal comfort is calculated using a full numerical model of thermal balance of the body of a "standard" human placed in atmospheric conditions near ground, outdoors, on grass or snow cover, if available. The feeling of thermal comfort/discomfort depends on the morphological parameters of the person - age, sex, height, weight and others, but for general purposes, the parameters of a "standard" person are used here. This is a 35-year-old man, 1.75 m tall, weighing 75 kg, in good health. The felt temperature depends on the work performed by the person and can be calculated at different power. In this case, it is assumed that the "standard" person performs work with applying the power corresponding to walking at a speed of 4 km/h on a horizontal surface. It is assumed that the wind always blows to the side of the direction of walking. The clothing is adapted (summer/winter) so that the "standard" person, if possible, achieves thermal comfort in the specific outdoor weather conditions. To determine the felt temperature, data on meteorological elements in the layer of air near the earth's surface (0–2 m), where the "standard" person is located, are used: air temperature; relative air humidity; wind speed; presence of snow cover. Also used: amount of cloud cover; geographical coordinates and altitude of the place; date and time.

Operational System for Ground Surface Temperature Forecast

The maps are generated on the basis of the forecast of ALADIN-BG weather model.

Ground Service Temperature

 

The ground surface temperature (also called “skin” temperature) is calculated for a grassy horizontal, flat ground surface outdoors with no horizon limitation. This is the temperature of the upper effective boundary of the grass or the exposed surface of the snow cover, if any. It is assumed that the grass surface is maintained in accordance with the recommendations of the World Meteorological Organization for the arrangement of a park for conducting meteorological measurements. It should be mowed at a height of several centimeters above the soil surface.

The temperature at a height of 5 cm above the soil surface is the closest temperature measured at a standard level to correspond to the temperature of the grassed ground surface.

The “skin” temperature is determined with a numerical thermal balance model constructed to use standard data of meteorological parameters: temperature and relative humidity of the air at a height of 2 m, wind speed at 10 m, amount of cloudiness, geographical location, date and time for solar radiation.

The sunlit land surface temperature can be much higher than the air temperature at 2 m, while the nighttime land surface temperature can be much lower in cloudless, dry and calm weather.