A wave prediction system for real time sea state forecasting in the Black Sea

Dr. A. Kortcheva, M. Dimitrova, V. Galabov

The operational system for wind waves forecasting in the Black Sea is a system of coupled atmospheric and wave numerical models aiming at a detailed and accurate sea state forecast on an operational level. The system is created at the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (NIMH-BAS) in collaboration with the Meteorological Office of France—Meteo-France. The numerical wave models VAG, WAVEWATCH III and WAM, developed by the research groups of Meteo-France, NCEP and WAMDI, have been adopted for the Black Sea area and implemented at the NIMH-BAS to allow real-time forecasts and hindcasts of the waves in the Black Sea. The coupling of two atmospheric models ARPEGE and ALADIN has been used to force the wave models. The operational use has indicated that the system is suitable for general purposes and the results are generally satisfactory. The wave models are evaluated through comparison with altimeter satellite measurements. Comparison between the model results and the altimeter data from the satellites ERS1/2 and ENVISAT demonstrates that the models fairly reproduce the observed waves characteristics.

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